Cooling is out of reach for over 1 billion people

AUSTRIA: People at high risk due to inadequate access to cooling for thermal comfort, food preservation, and medical products is projected to rise to 1.05 billion by 2030.

The latest projections by Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) are contained in its latest Chilling Prospects report. This covers 77 countries in the Global South, including 54 high-impact countries where risks exist on a national scale, and 23 countries with high-temperature regions where risks are analysed at a subnational level.

It finds that just over 1 billion people are currently at high risk of a lack of access to crucial cooling solutions in the countries analysed. This includes over 309 million people among the rural poor and 695 million people among the urban poor. A further 2.83 billion people are seen as being at medium-risk of a lack of access to cooling. 

By 2030, the global high-risk population is projected to rise by 43.3 million, driven primarily by a 7% increase in the urban poor (an additional 48.5 million), while the rural poor decline slightly to 304.1 million — signalling a shift in vulnerability toward urban areas.

The high risk groups are defined as those in rural areas lacking access to electricity and living in extreme poverty and the urban poor, who have limited or no access to electricity, and whose quality of housing is likely too poor to protect them from extreme heat.

The high risk rural poor are likely to engage in subsistence farming but lack access to an intact cold chain, and may also lack access to medical cold chains. The urban poor at high risk may not have sufficient income to purchase or run a fan. They may own or have access to a refrigerator, but intermittent electricity supplies may mean that food often spoils and there is a high risk of poor nutrition or food poisoning.

The medium risk groups are those in an increasingly affluent lower-middle income class that is on the brink of purchasing the lowest first-cost air conditioner or refrigerator on the market. However, their limited purchasing choices favour cooling devices that are likely affordable, but inefficient.

Highlighting specific areas, India’s medium-risk population has grown by 55 million since 2019 and is projected to surpass 1 billion by 2030, reflecting income growth and improved energy access.

Sub-Saharan Africa continues to have the largest number of people at high risk globally. Under current trends, both urban and rural populations face sustained vulnerability through 2030, driven by rapid population growth, persisting gaps in electricity access, and heat exposure.

Sustainable Energy for All insists that meeting the cooling needs of these groups represents an increasingly urgent climate, development and energy systems challenge.

It maintains that closing the access gap sustainably requires a comprehensive and systemic shift to sustainable cooling. This includes reducing heat exposure and cooling demand through passive design in buildings and cold chains; improving equipment efficiency standards; increasing affordability of solutions through technology and policy innovations; and accelerating the phase-down of climate-warming refrigerants.

Sustainable Energy for All is an independent organization, hosted by the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS), with a global mandate to accelerate progress on the energy transition in emerging and developing countries.

The Chilling Prospects report is available from the Sustainable Energy for All website.