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Africa tops global air conditioning forecasts

AFRICA: The African air conditioning market is forecast to grow at an above average 5.5% CAGR between 2017-2023, by volume, according to market research company BSRIA.

This will exceed the global forecast of 4.9% for the same period, and follows 2018 figures when the African market grew by 4%.

The main drivers for the growth are an increasing population, better performing economies, more stable governments, new construction, urbanisation and rising disposable income. The countries with the strongest growth forecast are: Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Tanzania.

BSRIA admits there are still a myriad of challenges faced by the countries in the region, including a recovering economy in Egypt with strong growth in construction and a planned new capital city; economic stagnation in the run-up to the passing of the Expropriation Bill in South Africa; shortage of foreign currency in Ethiopia and economic reforms in Tanzania restricting imports, as well as tough economic conditions challenging the growth of the Tunisian AC market.

“In spite of its political uncertainty and economic challenges, the continent continues to attract investors’ attention, especially from China,” said BSRIA research manager Saziye Dickson.

The main reason behind the growing interest in the region is its strong economic growth. According to the latest Oxford Economics forecast, GDP growth for Africa is set to outstrip that of any other world region from 2012 to 2030. This is driven by rapid economic and population growth, resulting in faster urbanisation than any other continent over this period.

BSRIA stats reveal that the annual sale of 2.8m units mostly consists of single un-ducted splits which enjoy the strongest forecasted growth (6%) due to demand from residential and light commercial projects. The VRF sector (4% growth) is the second fastest growth area in Africa.

The expected growth of 3% CAGR (2017 – 2023) in the chiller market will match the growth levels of the Americas and the European AC market.

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