BELGIUM: While Europe will add around 43.2 million heat pumps by the end of 2030, this will fall short of the 60 million additionally estimated to be required under REPowerEU.
Added to the current 20 million heat pumps already installed, but taking into account that some of the new heat pumps will be replacing older ones, the total heat pump stock will be close to 60 million units by the end of 2030. However, it will not be enough to decarbonise heating and cooling by 2050, as the EU climate law requires.
These projections from the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA) are based on recently released aggregated expert guidance from the EHPA’s national member associations.
The EHPA blames a number of barriers facing the sector, particularly the fact that the playing field is still tipped massively in favour of fossil fuels in terms of subsidies and taxation.
“Heat pump roll-out is happening, but to decarbonise heating and cooling governments create a more ambitious framework that makes clean heating most affordable for all,” said EHPA secretary general Thomas Nowak. “Distorted pricing that favours gas over electricity should be corrected to encourage more end users to switch to clean solutions and reward them with lower heating bills. The electricity price should be no more than double the price of gas.”
In terms of countries, by 2030 the European leader will be France with over 8 million additional heating and hot-water heat pumps installed, followed by Germany and Italy. Those three countries already account for 47% of the market.
Apart from Poland, the EHPA says that the main expected growth is in western Europe. It maintains that more countries need to show higher ambition and act to trigger faster change.
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