Sales in Norway bounce back

NORWAY: After two difficult years, the ventilation and cooling/heat pump market in Norway now appears to have bottomed out. 

The latest report for the second half of 2026 from VKE, Norways’s association for ventilation, cooling and energy, predicts that the market will grow 8.6% this year, boosted by the refurbishment market in existing commercial buildings.

Higher energy prices following the Strait of Hormuz conflict, persistent price pressure and a key interest rate that has now risen to 4.5% are seen to be dampening the recovery in the construction industry, which is still well below the levels from 2022.

The climate industry, however, paints a brighter picture. While the climate market fell sharplyby 6.3% in 2023 and 13.1% in 2024, the market levelled off in 2025 at NOK13.6bn (€1.25bn).

This year’s predicted growth will be mainly driven by large hospital projects in Oslo. By the end of 2028, the market is expected to be 7.5% above the 2025 level. 

The brightest spot in the report is, however, the development in existing commercial buildings. Climate work in this sector accounts for 41% of the total climate market, and is expected to grow by 3.2% this year, 4.2% in 2027 and 3.4% in 2028.

The growth is attributed to the ageing building stock, high and volatile electricity prices, increased network rents and an increased focus on energy efficiency among property managers. 

In the longer term, stricter regulatory requirements and consideration of greenhouse gas emissions over the life cycle of buildings will also contribute to less demolition and more upgrading of existing buildings.

Data centres are highlighted as a significant upside for the industry, but the pace of development is said to be limited in several places by access to power and network capacity.