Half of UK homes need a heat pump by 2040
26th February 2025
UK: The UK government’s independent advisors insist around half of homes need to be heated by a heat pump by 2040 in order to achieve decarbonisation targets.
The Climate Change Committee’s Carbon Budget 7 and its new Balanced Pathway to a decarbonised UK, estimates that the annual rate of heat pump installations in existing residential properties needs to rise from 60,000 in 2023 to nearly 450,000 by 2030 and around 1.5 million by 2035. That rate of increase would bring the UK in line with that seen in other European countries such as Ireland and the Netherlands.
According to the Climate Change Committee (CCC), delivering against this pathway will result in energy bills £700 cheaper by 2050, compared to today.
Commenting on CCC’s recommendations, Charlotte Lee, chief executive of the Heat Pump Association said: “The message is clear – to meet carbon budgets we must decarbonise heat from buildings, with 14% of the emission reductions expected by 2040 to come from homes.
“Fundamental to this transition is addressing the disparity between electricity and gas prices. As emphasised in CB7, this step is vital to accelerating electrification in key sectors like heating and surface transport, which are crucial for achieving significant carbon emission reductions over the next decade.”
The HPA also welcomed the focus on the impact on consumers analysed within CB7, insisting that the transition “should be a just transition, and bring consumers along in a positive, responsible and fair way”.
“This will require strong leadership, and some challenging decision making from the Government over the next few years, but what CB7 shows is that achieving net zero is possible,” Charlotte Lee added.
Speaking on behalf of ground-source heat pump company Kensa, CEO Tamsin Lishman said: “Five years on from the sixth carbon budget, the CCC has rightly ruled out any role for hydrogen, further supporting the now near-universal consensus that heat pumps are the best option for UK homes and buildings. It’s critical the government acts swiftly on this, confirming electrification as the default heating solution, and providing certainty for companies to invest in UK manufacturing capacity, supply chains, and new heat infrastructure.
“Crucially, the committee is spot on in highlighting the need to end the installation of gas boilers in new homes from next year. This is the single most important step the government can take right now to establish a major subsidy free market for heat pumps, allowing us to invest, scale up, and bring down costs for everyone.”
Detached from reality
Under its new name of the Plumbing and Heating Federation, the Scottish and Northern Ireland Plumbing Employers’ Federation (SNIPEF) criticised the CCC’s heat pump targets as “completely detached from reality,” warning that without a trained workforce to install them, the targets amount to “little more than empty ambitions”.
Chief executive Fiona Hodgson said: “Heat pump adoption cannot be driven by wishful thinking. The CCC and successive Westminster and devolved governments keep setting ambitious targets while ignoring the fundamental issue: there simply are not enough trained professionals to install them.
“Without serious investment in skills training and workforce expansion, the UK will fail to meet its heat pump targets. All governments need to stop offloading responsibility onto businesses and take action to ensure we have the people to deliver this transition.”
