European heat related deaths set to rise
25th August 2024
EUROPE: Without additional adaptation measures, temperature-related deaths in Europe could rise by 13.5% annually by the end of this century, according to a new study.
A first pan-European assessment by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine reveals that, even if current climate policies succeed in limiting the global temperature rise to 3°C, temperature-driven mortality may cause 55,000 additional deaths.
The study investigates present and projected future excess mortality caused by temperature change in 1,368 European regions across 30 countries: EU27, Norway, Switzerland, and the UK. It considers age-specific characteristics and local socio-economic and environmental vulnerabilities.
According to the study, the total mortality burden attributable to excessively hot or cold temperatures currently (baseline period 1991-2020) amounts to 407,000 deaths per year across Europe. Some 363,500 people die annually from cold, while 43,700 die from excessive heat.
In a 3°C warming scenario, projections show there could be a threefold increase in heat-related mortality with respect to today. While heat-related deaths would increase across all regions, southern European regions can be expected to suffer the greatest additional burden.
Cold-related fatalities grossly outnumber heat-related ones – at present, the approximate ratio is 8.3 to 1 – but as global warming unfolds, projections show a surge in heat-related deaths bringing this ratio to 2.6 to 1 for a 4°C temperature rise.
The results of the assessment also reveal disparities in temperature-related mortality across Europe. Cold-related deaths presently occur 2.5 times more frequently in the east than in the west, with heat-related deaths being over six times more frequent in southern than in northern Europe. By 2100, it is estimated that heat-related deaths will occur 9.3 times more frequently in the south than in the north.
In the 3°C warming scenario, heat-related deaths in Greece would increase annually from 1,730 today to 4,767, in France from 3,061 to 13,564, in Italy from 10,433 to 28,285, and in Spain from 4,414 to 20,194, according to the study.
