European heat pump sales down 6.5% in 2023
18th July 2024
BELGIUM: Heat pump sales were 6.5% lower in 2023, the first fall after ten years of annual growth, threatening Europe’s 2030 climate targets.
Based on data contained in the latest heat pump market report published by the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA), the heating contribution to the EU’s 2030 climate targets will be missed by a significant amount if current trends in heat pump sales continue.
The 3.02 million heat pumps sold in 2023 bring the total installed heat pumps in Europe’s buildings to 23.96 million – a 13.7% rise on 2022’s total.
The EHPA argues that if annual sales remain at this level, around 45 million heat pumps would be installed by 2030 – about 25% short of the EU’s aims.
“The EU would miss out on potential investments and net zero industry growth.,” it says. “It would also be a missed opportunity to avoid emissions of about 70Mt of CO2, roughly the annual CO2 output of Romania.”
EHPA policy manager Mélanie Auvray added: “With over 250 manufacturing sites in Europe, every heat pump sold and installed is a boost for Europe’s clean tech sector and its competitiveness. Ensuring we continue to grow the sector will help our energy independence as well as our path to a net zero economy.
“The delayed Heat Pump Action Plan is a crucial tool for stabilising the sector and tapping the benefits it offers. The new European Commission must publish it rapidly.”
The report is based on statistics from 18 EU member states, plus Norway, Switzerland and the UK.
Countries seeing the largest growth were Germany (161k additional heat pumps sold compared to 2022, +58.5%) Belgium (+43k, +72.2%) and the Netherlands (+50k, +43.4%). The greatest declines were experienced by Italy (a fall in sales of 298k heat pumps or -44.1%), Finland (-78k, -41.9%) and Poland (-78k, -38.8%).
In terms of the heat pump stock (meaning all installed heat pumps) per 1,000 households, Norway leads the way with 635, followed by Finland with 512 and Sweden with 438. At the other end are Hungary with 12 heat pumps per 1,000 households, the UK with 15 and Slovakia with 30.
Key reasons given for the slow down are changing policies and support schemes. The EHPA argues that this can be seen in contrasting examples like the Netherlands, where stable policies have boosted growth, and Italy where a major change in the support scheme destabilised consumer confidence. Another key reason is gas prices becoming cheaper compared to electricity, where bills are often heavily taxed.
