Extreme heat in Europe could kill millions
29th January 2025
UK/EUROPE: Heat-related deaths due to climate change are likely to substantially surpass any decrease in cold-related deaths across Europe by the end of the century.
A modelling study, led by researchers from the Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), estimates that changes to the climate could directly result in over 2.3 million additional temperature-related deaths in 854 European cities by 2099 if urgent action is not taken to cut carbon emissions. However, up to 70% of these deaths could be prevented if rapid action is taken, the study says.
Climate change will likely result in a significant rise in deaths from heat across Europe, substantially surpassing any decrease in cold-related deaths. According to the study, this trend persists across climate change scenarios and even under high adaptation to heat, reinforcing the need for aggressive mitigation policies.
The study suggests that even if enormous efforts were made to adapt cities to changing temperatures this would not be enough to balance increased health risks due to exposure to heat, especially in the most vulnerable areas such as the Mediterranean region, Central Europe, and the Balkans. Only swift cuts to carbon emissions that keep temperatures down were shown to reduce the number of extreme heat deaths.
“Our results stress the urgent need to aggressively pursue both climate change mitigation and adaptation to increased heat. This is especially critical in the Mediterranean area where, if nothing is done, consequences could be dire. But, by following a more sustainable pathway, we could avoid millions of deaths before the end of the century,” said Dr Pierre Masselot, lead author of the study.
According to the modelling study, the ten European cities projected to see the highest temperature-related death tolls by the end of the century due to climate change are Barcelona 246,082, Rome 147,738, Naples 147,248, Madrid 129,716, Milan 110,131, Athens 87,523, Valencia 67,519, Marseille 51,306, Bucharest 47,468, Genoa 36,338.
Due to their larger populations the highest numbers of temperature-related deaths are projected in the most populous Mediterranean cities, but many smaller cities in Malta, Spain and Italy are also likely to be badly affected with high temperature-related death rates.
Away from the Mediterranean region, impacts are expected to be less severe, with other European capitals such as Paris (13,515) projected to see a smaller, but still significant, increase in cumulative cold and heat deaths. On the other hand, most cities in the British Isles and Scandinavian countries could see a net decrease in deaths, one being London (-27,455).
“These results debunk proposed theories of “beneficial” effects of climate change, often proposed in opposition to vital mitigation policies that should be implemented as soon as possible,” said Professor Antonio Gasparrini, senior author of the article and lead of the EHM-Lab at LSHTM.
